Presentation Materials
Main Q&A (Analyst Meeting after the Results for the FY2019)
Announced on May 7, 2020
Please be advised that the following text has been edited/modified from the original Q&A conversations for the sake of clarity.
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Questioner No. 1
Q1 You mentioned that you cannot provide the guidance for FY2020 due to the uncertainties caused by COVID-19. Can you indicate the concrete elements that are difficult to predict and the size of financial impact in the worst case scenario?
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Q2 Can you once again elaborate on the factors that could affect your mobile communications services revenues?
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Q3 I believe international roaming revenues accounts for less than 1% of your total mobile communications services revenues. Is my understanding correct?
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Q4 You explained that you will push forward with the liquidation of receivables and assets to improve your ROIC, but why are you addressing the improvement of ROIC and asset effciency in the first place? In the stock market, the improvement of these indicators are sometimes discussed as an end in itself, but, as an operating company, I guess you have certain business objectives and the improvement of the indicators per se is not the intrinsic goal. I assume you are pursuing their improvement to use the proceeds for share repurchase or other forms of shareholder returns. Can you give a comment on this, together with the reason why you did not plan a dividend increase this year despite continuing share buybacks over the years and planning the liquidation of receivables?
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Questioner No. 2
Q1 How much handset installment receivables did you actually liquidate in FY2019? Were you able to complete the liquidation of the entire amount you had planned? Concerning the planned liquidation of credit card receivables in FY2020, do you plan to execute the whole amount in FY2020? If so, what is the size of the program?
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Q2 Did you complete the liquidation of credit card receivables in the entire amount you had planned for FY2019? Also, what is the amount of handset installment receivables liquidation planned for FY2020?
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Q3 Regarding your net additions trend, as a result of your endeavors in the second quarter, you recorded 1.87 million net additions during FY2019, which was 370,000 higher than your initial plan. What are the key factors behind this favorable performance? Could you also give us a breakdown of the net adds separating DOCOMO brand subscribers and MVNO users? And how should we consider your FY2020 prospects in light of your performance in FY2019?
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Q4 I believe you have already experiencing some impact in FY2020 due to the outflow of Rakuten MVNO users to Rakuten’s MNO service. Do you think you can make up for these outflows with the net additional DOCOMO brand subscribers?
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Questioner No. 3
Q1 I would like to ask about your shareholder return policy. This time, you kept your dividend unchanged and made no announcements concerning share repurchase. Does this imply that you altered your shareholder return policy in view of the social circumstances, i.e., the emerging global trend to reconsider the business management style that attaches importance on shareholders in the post-coronavirus era? Or is this simply a temporary difficulty to properly estimate your cash flow and other indicators caused by a technical reason? Which is the case?
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Q2 You commented earlier that you need to prepare your system to execute the liquidation of handset installment receivables. Is it right to construe that you have already completed the system preparations for liquidation of credit card receivables? Also, while you declared to keep your dividend unchanged, is there a possibility to reconsider your dividend when you become ready to publicly announce your business plans for FY2020? Or, is there no room for a review?
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Q3 You explained that you anticipate a negative revenue impact from international roaming and slowdown in the pace of subscriber migration due to COVID-19. However, the ARPU trend has been showing an improvement with your FY2019 full-year ARPU coming in higher than your revised forecast. Can you elaborate on the positive factors driving the improvement (were it not for COVID-19) and the negative impacts of COVID-19 that are diluting the ARPU?
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Q4 The negative impact caused by reduced international roaming revenues and the decline in ARPU from slower pace of subscriber migration, in my view, should be about 50 yen each. Mobile ARPU will certainly drop if these impacts are taken into consideration, but I do not think it will decrease as much as 100 yen from the FY2019 full-year ARPU of 4,230 yen. If that is the case, I believe you will still be able to achieve a profit growth through cost reduction even if you suffer certain impacts from COVID-19, but what do you think? Will it be difficult to grow your profits even if you cut your costs by close to 100 billion yen?
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Questioner No. 4
Q1 Previously, you provided us with an indication on the elements that could affect your FY2019 operating profit, e.g., a 250 billion-yen negative revenue impact from the launch of new rate plans and a positive impact from reduced “Monthly Support” discount of 90 billion yen. Can you let us know what was actual size of these elements? Also, I recall you had a plan to spend over 50 billion yen for growth investments. How much did you actually invest?
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Q2 Is it correct to understand that the impact of “Monthly Support” discounts, including the “docomo with” program, was 50-60 billion yen?
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Q3 This is a question regarding your MVNO business. The interconnection rate for data communications is expected to be lowered by approximately 16%, and I believe the MVNO voice rate will drop to nearly cost-plus-reasonable-profit level in the arbitration with Japan Communications Inc. Please share with us the financial impact you anticipate from these two factors in FY2020?
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Questioner No. 5
Q1 Regarding the breakdown of operating profit from Smart life business and Other businesses, you explained during the results presentation session the contribution from each category was as follows: content/lifestyle approximately 15%, finance/payment approximately 5%, support services for customers’ peace of mind approximately 60% and others including enterprise solutions approximately 20%. Can you provide us the revenue breakdown of these categories for both FY2019 and FY2018?
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Q2 What services in the content/lifestyle and enterprise solutions categories are showing a steadfast growth?
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Q3 For enterprise solutions, will there be any benefits from the GIGA School initiative promoted by the Japanese government? Through media coverage, I have developed a very good impression about the reputation of NTT Group’s telework solution that uses docomo Cloud. Is this progressing favorably?
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Q4 Regarding your content/lifestyle business, you mentioned that your subscriber acquisition performance has started to turn for the better. In a word, how would you describe the strong points of your content/lifestyle offerings?
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Q5 The COVID-19 impact on page 30 of your results presentation deck contains a description about a decline in finance and payment service. I rather expect an increase in the total volume of online transactions as people are staying at home, but are you actually seeing a decline in usage?
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Questioner No. 6
Q1 Please let us know the factors that you take into consideration when you decide on the amount of receivables liquidation.
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Q2 You announced your 5G subscriber target of 2.5 million in FY2020 and 20 million within FY2023. Of these numbers, what is the proportion of handsets?
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Q3 Is it right to assume that the contribution of modules to your 5G subscriber count in FY2020 will be negligible?
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Questioner No. 7
Q1 The downtrend for mobile ARPU (after applying discounts) recorded an increase in FY2019/4Q over the previous quarter (FY2019/3Q). In your previous statement, you predicted the reversal would happen at some point during FY2020. Please explain why you were able to achieve this ahead of your forecast?
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Q2 If the mobile ARPU (after discounts) reverses its year-on-year downtrend within FY2020, and the impact of COVID-19 is limited and does not cause a huge decline in your subscriber count, can we expect an increase in mobile communications services revenues in FY2020? Or do you foresee that mobile communications services revenues will not grow because of the negative impacts caused by the 400 billion-yen customer return package?
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Questioner No. 8
Q1 I got the impression that the FY2019/4Q ARPU recorded an increase because the downtrend came to a halt earlier than your expectations. On the other hand, the decrease of subscriptions seems to be accelerating. Doesn’t it imply that the rate cuts provided by the new rate plans have not delivered the intended customer retention effect? Also, the government had suggested a 40% rate cut, but your mobile ARPU has not decreased that much. If the downtrend of mobile ARPU levels off, don’t you think the government will apply pressure for another rate reduction? Please explain your countermeasures for the future.
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Q2 The year-on-year decrease of i-mode/sp-mode subscriptions in FY2019/4Q was significantly larger than the decline recorded in FY2019/2Q and 3Q. Was this a temporary plunge caused by the inability to promote sales due to COVID-19?
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Q3 As for regulatory risks, set aside the sales endeavors of the field staff, I believe the top management should prepare the measures against additional requests that may be imposed by the government. Isn’t it possible to mitigate risks to some extent, for example, by making drastic capital investments as they will have a different meaning from simply spending costs?
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Questioner No. 9
Q1 About Rakuten’s entry, in the MNP market, you have so far competed among three players for 50,000-100,000 subscribers per month. How many subscribers have moved out to Rakuten until now? Please also let us know at what pace Rakuten MVNO users are switching to Rakuten’s MNO service and its projected consequences on your MVNO revenues.
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Q2 I believe you already have compiled the actual monthly port-out data for April, but if it is difficult to disclose concrete numbers, can you share with us your views on the current state of competition?
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Q3 Do you anticipate a certain level of MVNO revenue loss due to Rakuten’s market entry?
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Q4 What is the projected size of impact if the entire MVNO revenues from Rakuten disappears?
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Q5 Your subscription count includes enterprise-related accounts, but I believe the core market can be represented by the sum of i-mode and sp-mode subscriptions. These numbers have been declining three years in a row (by 300,000 in FY2017, 200,000 in FY2018 and 400,000 in FY2019) with the cumulative loss amounting to nearly 1 million. Is there any prospect of halting this decline? What actions do you think is necessary to stop the downtrend?
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Q6 In your view, the loss of nearly 1 million subscribers in three years that I mentioned earlier is not a problem?
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Questioner No. 10
Q1 The new rate plans’ subscriber target of 17 million has been drawing particular attention to measure the effects of your expanded customer return initiatives, but I believe the key objectives of those initiatives were the reduction of churns, increase of subscriptions and fending off Rakuten. How do you evaluate your performance so far in this context? I would appreciate a comment including your level of satisfaction.
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Q2 It has been a while after you developed your medium-term management strategy. What kind of changes and impacts have you seen ever since? Since you talked about your 50 billion-yen investment for future growth projects, can you give us your interim assessment of the progress?
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