Principal Questions and Answers Earnings Release for FY2011 2Q (ended September 30, 2011)
Announced on November 2, 2011
Please be advised that the following text has been edited/modified from the original Q&A conversations for the sake of clarity.
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Q1 |
Regarding the newly introduced voice flat-rate billing plan for Xi service, which looks like an effective price hike of voice charges, did you introduce it with the aim of stemming the decline of voice revenues or even achieving an increase in such voice revenues over the medium to long term? |
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A1 |
In the simulations that we conducted prior to the introduction of the new voice flat-rate plan, we assumed that this plan would be a first preference of heavy voice users who will be attracted by the unlimited use of voice for a fixed monthly rate. We would like to stress that this plan was not intended as a weapon in price competition, but rather that we would like to leverage this plan in order to spur migration to Xi. We also expect the new plan will serve as a countermeasure against VoIP services. |
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Q2 |
I found it difficult to figure out whom the messages contained in this medium-term vision were intended for. Frankly speaking, as an investor, it is hard to make an evaluation of this vision as it does not contain any financial targets. |
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A2 |
It is true that financial targets are not included in our medium-term vision. Based on the assumption that we will achieve our operating income target of over 900.0 billion yen in FY2012, we decided to develop a new medium-term vision at this juncture to clarify the general direction of the Company's activities in the subsequent years. In this new vision, we envisage developing new businesses jointly with external partners. By clearly presenting the Company's stance at this point of time, we believe we can accelerate initiatives to be implemented in FY2012, and thereafter. We expect to announce a more detailed business plan at a later stage. |
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Q3 |
In your medium-term vision, you set a target of raising your packet revenues to 1.5 times the level of the current fiscal year by FY2015. By simple calculation, this implies that your operating income could reach 1.8 trillion yen in FY2015, once the decline of voice revenues comes to a halt and starts rising again. Is this an appropriate estimate? |
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A3 |
It is not that simple. We need to make preparations for business deployment in new areas, in light of possible decline of voice revenues due to the expanded adoption of VoIP. |
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Q1 |
I understand you made an upward revision to your full-year smartphone sales forecast in light of the brisk sales recorded in recent months. How did you estimate the competitive impact of iPhone 4S, which was launched recently by your competitors, in the revised forecast? |
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A1 |
In the four-day period immediately after the launch of iPhone 4S (October 14-17, 2011), the figure of our MNP port-outs increased by 2.5 times compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. However the figure for the period between October 18 and 31, 2011 stabilized to 1.2 times. In normal years, October is a slow month in terms of handset sales, because many customers wait for the release new models scheduled for the subsequent months. This year, however, the total figure of new sales for October recorded a 1.3-fold increase year-on-year. As indicated by these numbers, we believe the impact of iPhone 4S has not been very significant. Our 2011 winter-spring models unveiled on October 18, 2011, are getting a favorable response from our customers. We don't think that we will fall behind the competition in sales of devices because we excel in our overall offerings with a rich variety of devices/services and have an extensive network. |
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Q2 |
How do you analyze your performance in the acquisition of net additions for October? |
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A2 |
Because the total number of net additions per month is limited to only a few hundred thousand, we have to anticipate a certain degree of impact. I hope you will look forward to our new sales after the 2011 winter-spring models go on the market. |
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Q3 |
Regarding your medium-term vision, based on the assumption that you will maintain your current operating income margin of approximately 20%, I calculate that operating revenues for FY2015 would be expected to increase by 1.5 trillion yen (including 900.0 billion yen in packet revenues and 600.0 billion in revenues from new businesses) and operating income by 300.0 billion yen compared to current levels. Is this understanding correct? |
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A3 |
It will be difficult to achieve an operating income margin of 20% during the initial stage of new businesses. For example, mmbi is expected to incur losses in its initial phase of operations. We must launch and expand new services in order to enhance the operating income margin of such new businesses toward FY2020. After we sow the seeds of these new businesses, they will then begin to sprout and eventually grow into a large tree, but as of FY2015, we believe these businesses will still be too young to bear fruit. |
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Q4 |
Would it be fair to understand that you will be able to maintain a 20% operating income margin in your cellular services business, after achieving the 900.0 billion yen income target for FY2012? |
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A4 |
We will study our future income targets taking into consideration of the impact of Monthly Support discounts. |
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Q1 |
Can you explain your rationale for bringing down your full-year aggregate ARPU forecast by 20 yen compared to the initial forecast? I believe you had an option to maintain the aggregate ARPU forecast at an unchanged level, because the upward revision to the full-year smartphone sales forecast to 8.5 million units can be considered a positive factor boosting your packet ARPU. |
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A1 |
We believe the revised full-year packet ARPU forecast properly reflects the growth achieved in FY2011/1H. We made a downward revision to the full-year aggregate ARPU forecast because of the larger-than-expected drop of voice ARPU. If the decline was attributable only to irregular factors like the impact of the March 2011 earthquake, we may be able to expect a certain degree of stabilization in the future, but it seems that the drop was more affected by reduced voice minutes resulting from increased packet use. Because we currently believe the decline in voice MOU has been driven primarily by subscribers' migration to smartphones, we will need to keep a close eye on such future trends. |
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Q2 |
The decrease of voice ARPU was in line with my expectations and I don't find anything awkward about your explanation. Do you foresee any chance of your packet ARPU ending up higher than your forecast? |
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A2 |
Please understand that the revised full-year packet ARPU forecast was determined after factoring in recent ARPU trends, the track record of smartphone sales and our prospects for future device sales. |
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Q3 |
Does your forecast factor in a further increase in sales promotion expenses for the high-sales season in the coming spring? |
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A3 |
Yes, it does. |
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Q4 |
I would like to hear your comments concerning your medium-term revenue outlook. Your full-year cellular service revenues are estimated to be approximately 3.4 trillion yen, and you mentioned in your vision that you will aim to increase your packet revenues by 900.0 billion yen by FY2015. In my estimate, if you are able to grow your packet revenues by approximately 700.0 billion yen from the current level, you should be able to record a year-on-year increase in your operating revenues from FY2015 onwards, at which point it is estimated that the ratio of voice and packet revenues will be 20:80. Is my understanding correct? |
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A4 |
The general direction that you indicated is correct (i.e., packet revenues accounting for a larger proportion of total revenues). We will basically aim for an increase in both operating revenues and income, and we may be able to provide you with more details after compiling a business plan sometime in FY2012/2H. |
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Q1 |
Do you think you would have been able to achieve over 900.0 billion yen in operating income this fiscal year if you had not implemented the system modifications made, given both the upward revision to the full-year income forecast and the impact of system modifications implemented during the previous fiscal year? |
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A1 |
For the previous fiscal year, we achieved an increase in operating income due to a temporary reduction in expenses arising from system modifications. When we make a comparison that excludes this impact of this system modification, we estimate that projected full-year income for this fiscal year would be reached a higher level than the previous fiscal year. |
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Q2 |
Was your medium-term vision developed based on the premise that you will restore Xi rates to normal levels when the current introductory campaign offering discounted rates expires? Do you foresee any risks of increased churn or subscriber liquidity resulting from the termination of these special discounts? Or do you have plans to extend the discount period? |
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A2 |
We intend to end the introductory campaign on April 30, 2012, as planned. The termination of this campaign will of course be decided in view of the competitive landscape and we do not intend to take a rigid stance of terminating the campaign by any means without taking the prevailing circumstances into consideration, but the current plan is to finish the campaign as scheduled. Because LTE offers enhanced convenience with its higher speed connections, we believe customers will accept the higher charges for its extra utility. In addition, we believe that many heavy voice users will also join this service, because the flat-rate voice plan allows users to make unlimited domestic voice calls to any DOCOMO subscriber for 1,480 yen a month,. |
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Q3 |
Do you have any plans to counter the competition by maneuvering your handset prices? |
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A3 |
We will not rule out such possibility. Even today, we provide higher commissions for Xi devices compared to FOMA handsets to make them more affordable for customers. |
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Q1 |
You have delivered a message on a number of occasions that you plan to achieve a rebound in aggregate ARPU during the next fiscal year. I am rather skeptical about its achievability given the recent drop in voice ARPU. What is your view? |
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A1 |
That message also reflects the management's strong desire to achieve a rebound, and at this point we believe it is achievable. According to our revised forecast, where the impact of Monthly Support discounts is excluded, our full-year packet ARPU is expected to record a year-on-year increase of 170 yen, or even the figure in excess of 200 yen on a momentary basis. The growth of packet ARPU has been stronger than our earlier expectations, and we expect it will more than offset the decline in voice ARPU in the future. There is another positive development: although we anticipated a dilution in the ARPU boosting effect resulting from subscribers' migration to smartphones in line with the expansion of their user base, this dilution effect was not as significant as we had expected. When these factors are taken into account, we believe we are well positioned to achieve a rebound in aggregate ARPU within FY2012. |
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Q2 |
The billable MOU decreased by seven minutes year-on-year in FY2011/1Q. What was the decline for the FY2011/2Q? |
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A2 |
It recorded a decrease comparable to that of FY2011/1Q. |
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Q3 |
I remember that Mr. Yamada previously commented that you have an ambition to raise your operating revenues to 5.0 trillion yen in the future. Is your medium-term vision aligned with that statement? |
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A3 |
We have the basic aim of achieving growth in both operating revenues and income, but our medium-term vision was developed without taking the 5.0 trillion yen ambition into account. |
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Q1 |
With respect to measures for accommodating the growth of traffic, your medium-term vision expects a 12-fold increase in traffic volume in the period between FY2011 and FY2015. Do you think you can completely absorb this growth only with your current mobile phone network? |
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A1 |
If we assume that we will be awarded a bandwidth of 15MHz x 2 in either of the 900MHz or 700MHz spectrum bands, the total amount of spectrum we own will double from the current level by simple calculation. Furthermore, Xi offers spectral efficiency three times higher than existing systems, so our current network should be able to accommodate a six-fold growth of traffic (2 times from additional spectrum multiplied by three times from improved spectral efficiency). We intend to respond to the traffic growth with a comprehensive approach employing various measures, such as efficiency improvement through the use of smaller-zone base stations and increasing antenna sectors, data offloading through the use of Wi-Fi, dynamic network control against heavy users and speed restriction under Xi's tiered pricing plan. Thereafter, we plan to accommodate the traffic growth with the introduction of 4G system using the 3.5GHz spectrum band. |
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Q2 |
By employing those measures, do you think you will be able to maintain your corporate image as a carrier that offers high-quality service with a robust infrastructure? |
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A2 |
We will aim to maintain our current quality levels and gain customer recognition for our superior quality and safety/security offerings. Regarding capital expenditures, we intend to maintain the current level of approximately 700.0 billion yen per annum. We have hitherto made investments for the expansion of our service areas, and we believe we would have been able to reduce our CAPEX by now, were it not for the traffic increase caused by the expanded uptake of smartphones. Going forward, our capital investments will be used in principle for capacity expansion. |
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Q3 |
I expect that you will increase the number of mergers and acquisitions in the future to expand new businesses. Will that result in a slowdown in the pace of dividend hikes? |
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A3 |
No, we do not foresee any impact on dividends. Our aim is to grow the revenue size of new businesses to 1.0 trillion yen by FY2015. Estimated revenues from new business fields for this fiscal year are estimated to be 400.0 billion yen, and we will aim to expand the revenues from these existing non-core services to 600.0-700.0 billion yen by FY2015. In addition, we also plan to start up other new businesses with the aim of growing their revenues to 300.0-500.0 billion yen. We may engage in mergers and acquisitions if there are any good opportunities to do so, but we do not have any concerns about how they are financed. We will attach highest priority to using available cash flow for dividend payments, and any remaining cash will be used for growth investments. If there is an investment opportunity that requires an amount higher than the cash on hand, we will basically rely on external financing. We have not made any changes to our basic policy of continuing stable dividend payments. |
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Q1 |
Listening to your medium-term vision presentation, I found it difficult to estimate the size of your voice revenues for FY2015. Is it correct to understand that although your cellular services revenues are on a downtrend, under your basic scenario toward FY2015 you will aim to achieve an increase in total revenues by making up for the decline of cellular service revenues through increases in other revenues? |
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A1 |
We would like to achieve an increase in our cellular service revenues as well even by a small amount. We will try to make up for the decline in voice revenues by increasing our packet revenues as much as possible. But this will be affected by the degree of adoption of VoIP services. |
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Q2 |
You mentioned that you will aim to raise the total number of smartphone subscriptions to 40.00 million within FY2015, of which Xi subscriptions are projected to account for 30.00 million. Can you give us a breakdown of the number of data cards, Wi-Fi routers, tablets and smartphones included in this forecast? |
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A2 |
In our forecast, we assume that the combined subscriptions to data cards and Wi-Fi routers will account for 10% of the total, and subscriptions to tablets another 10%. We intend to more strongly promote the sales of Wi-Fi routers and data cards going forward appealing Xi's attractive data billing plans and other things. For tablets, we plan to cultivate the enterprise market leveraging Xi's faster transmission speeds. |
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